Apportionment

1960–2010 Reapportionment Shifts

Though the number of Congressional seats has not changed since 1911, the movement of seats has. A review of aggregate representation shifts over the past five reapportionments reveals 62 seats have moved south and west; nearly as many as the 65 seats first apportioned by the Constitution.

2020 Reapportionment Forecast – Bubble Seats - 2018 Estimates

Based on Fair Lines America’s updated 2020 reapportionment estimates the twelve seats listed below are the ones forecast to be either the final 6 apportioned or the first 6 left out following the 2020 Census.

2020 Reapportionment Forecast – Total Population - 2018 Estimates

Fair Lines America updated their 2018 estimates for reapportionment following the 2020 Census. The 2020 reapportionment will allocate congressional representation (and Electoral College votes) for the 50 states from 2022 through 2030.

2020 Reapportionment Forecast – Total Citizen Population - 2018 Estimates

Fair Lines used the newly released ACS 5-year Estimates from 2013-2017 to forecast how reapportionment would play out if the Census Bureau reapportioned congressional representation based on the total citizen population rather than the total resident population.

2020 Reapportionment Forecast – Total Citizen Population - 2017 Estimates

In 2020, the decennial census is set to include a citizenship question for the first time since 1950.

2020 Reapportionment Forecast – The 12 Bubble Seats

Most apportionment changes are seen months, if not years, in advance, but each decade a seat or two shifts unexpectedly.