Apportionment

2020 Reapportionment Forecast – Bubble Seats - 2018 Estimates

Based on Fair Lines America’s updated 2020 reapportionment estimates the twelve seats listed below are the ones forecast to be either the final 6 apportioned or the first 6 left out following the 2020 Census.

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The Safest 3 In

CA-52 dropped from number 426 and enters the last 6 in at number 430 with a priority value of 774,514. FL-29 (768,758) held steady at 431 while IL-17 moved up from 434 to land at 432 with a priority value of 768,074. PA-17 has climbed from 432 to 428 while AZ-10 has moved from 431 after the 2017 estimates to 429 and are no longer bubble seats.

The Last 3 In

The last three in (seats 433, 434 and 435) are MT-02 (764,163), TX-39 (763,509), and NY-26 (763,490). MT-02 is up from 436 last year while NY-26 wasn’t on the bubble a year ago. That trajectory could point to NY-26 joining NY-27 as seats lost after the 2020 reapportionment.

The First 3 Out

Seats 436, 437 and 438 are MN-08 (759,938), CA-53 (759,760), and OH-16 (757,391). MN-08 is up 1 spot from last year while CA-53 dropped 3 spots. OH-16 moved from 439 to 438.

The Next 3 Out

The next three out (seats 439, 440, 441) are AL-07 (757,370), VA-12 (749,333) and RI-02 (748,054). AL-07 fell one spot from 438 to 439 while VA-12 climbed from 443 to 440. RI-02 held at 441. CA-54 has fallen out of bubble seat territory to number 442 from 440 last year.

Shifting Seat Priorities

Fair Lines estimates the dividing priority value between seat 435 and 436 will be about 760,000 in 2020. In 2010, the 435th priority value was 710,231 (MN-08). The 436th was NC-14’s 709,063.

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Fair Lines America has run forecasts for the 2020 reapportionment for every annual population estimate release. If released in 2011, estimates run for 2020 would have shown NC-14 as seat 429, one of the safest three Bubble Seats. As it is, NC-14 is now comfortably at seat 422 and will likely continue to climb. Likewise, MT-02 has gone from seat 441 in 2011 to 435 today.

Conversely, CA-53 has trended downward since 2010. CA-53 started at No. 428 but has dropped eight places and may become California’s first Congressional seat loss.