Based on Fair Lines America’s updated 2020 reapportionment estimates the twelve seats listed below will be either the final 6 apportioned or the first 6 left out.
The Safest 3 In
CA-52 remains at number 430 with a priority value of 768,768. IL-17 moves up one spot to 431 with a priority value of 766,052. NY-26 jumped three spots going from the last seat in following the 2018 estimates and is now seat 432 with a priority value of 761,187.
The Last 3 In
The last three in (seats 433, 434 and 435) are FL-29 (761,047) which dropped from seat 431 to seat 433, MT-02 (760,520), and TX-39 (760,204). FL-29 dropped from 431 last year to 433 this year while MT-02 and TX-39 both slipped one spot.
The First 3 Out
Seats 436, 437 and 438 are AL-07 (758,152), MN-08 (757,448), and OH-16 (755,361). AL-07 advanced three places between 2018 and 2019, MN-08 dropped one, and OH-16 held steady.
The Next 3 Out
The next three out (seats 439, 440, 441) are CA-53 (754,124), RI-02 (749,635) and VA-12 (745,546). CA-53 continues to fall, losing three spots in the past year. RI-02 and VA-12 swapped spots.
Shifting Seat Priorities
Fair Lines estimates the dividing priority value between seat 435 and 436 will be about 760,000 in 2020 just as we found after the previous round of estimates. In 2010, the 435th priority value was 710,231 (MN-08). The 436th was NC-14’s 709,063.
Fair Lines America ran forecasts for the 2020 reapportionment for every annual population estimate release. If released in 2011, estimates run for 2020 would have shown NC-14 as seat 429, one of the safest three Bubble Seats. As it is, NC-14 is now comfortably at seat 422. Likewise, MT-02 has gone from seat 441 in 2011 to 434 today.
Conversely, CA-53 has trended downward since 2010. CA-53 started at No. 428 but has dropped eleven places this decade.