Fair Lines used the newly released ACS 5-year Estimates from 2013-2017 to forecast how reapportionment would play out if the Census Bureau reapportioned congressional representation based on the total citizen population rather than the total resident population.
Our reapportionment forecast for 2020 did not change with the new data release.
The 12 seats below are the last 6 we project would be apportioned, and the first 6 that would not be apportioned, if the Census used the total citizenship population. The district numbers are listed with their corresponding priority value.
Even if reapportionment was conducted using the total citizen population there would still be a gap of 472,901 citizens between the largest and smallest districts.
The largest districts in the country based on the citizen population:
The smallest districts in the country based on the citizen population: