Apportionment

2020 Reapportionment Forecast – Total Citizen Population - 2018 Estimates

Methodology

Fair Lines used the newly released ACS 5-year Estimates from 2013-2017 to forecast how reapportionment would play out if the Census Bureau reapportioned congressional representation based on the total citizen population rather than the total resident population.

Reapportionment Based on Citizenship

Apportionment2020_Cpop_Dec2018.png

Our reapportionment forecast for 2020 did not change with the new data release.

Bubble Seats

The 12 seats below are the last 6 we project would be apportioned, and the first 6 that would not be apportioned, if the Census used the total citizenship population. The district numbers are listed with their corresponding priority value.

Bubble_seats_Cpop_Dec2018.png
The Safest 3 In
District Priority Value
NJ-12 710,941
LA-07 709,905
NY-26 708,445
The Last 3 In
District Priority Value
PA-18 708,081
MO-09 706,163
TX-37 703,600
The First 3 Out
District Priority Value
CA-50 702,467
RI-02 702,407
FL-28 701,770
The Next 3 Out
District Priority Value
VA-12 699,456
OK-06 696,146
OH-17 691,139

Post-Reapportionment District Citizen Populations

Even if reapportionment was conducted using the total citizen population there would still be a gap of 472,901 citizens between the largest and smallest districts.

The largest districts in the country based on the citizen population:

District Population
RI-AL 993,354
DE-AL 920,683
SD-AL 853,891
ID-01 829,472
ID-02 829,471

The smallest districts in the country based on the citizen population:

District Population
MT-01 520,453
MT-02 520,453
WY-AL 575,976
WV-01 600,441
WV-02 600,442
WV-03 600,442