Apportionment

2020 Reapportionment Forecast – Total Population - 2018 Estimates

Below are Fair Lines America’s updated 2018 estimates for reapportionment following the 2020 Census. The 2020 reapportionment will allocate congressional representation (and Electoral College votes) for the 50 states from 2022 through 2030.

Methodology

By taking the July 1, 2018 estimates of the resident population of the United States from the Census Bureau and adding a weighted average growth rate Fair Lines America has produced a reasonable forecast for what the next reapportionment will look like in December of 2020.

The 2020 Forecast

The Upper Midwest and Northeast are expected to see continued migration of representation to the South and West.

Texas looks to gain its 6th, 7th, and 8th new members this century as Florida picks up its 5th and 6th. Four western states (Arizona, Colorado, Montana, and Oregon) would expand their delegations while North Carolina may gain the 14th seat it just missed in 2010.

California is projected to lose a Congressional seat for the first time since it joined the Union. Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania all appear likely to lose another seat, bringing their collective loss for the century to 19. Rhode Island is poised to join the ranks of At-Large states. West Virginia would replace Rhode Island as one of five states with only two members, and Minnesota is on the verge of losing the 8th seat it managed to just barely hold on to in 2010.

Apportionment2020_Tpop_Dec2018.png

Post-2020 District Populations

The 2010 decennial census found a 426,000-person population gap between the largest and smallest districts. If estimates hold, the next round of redistricting would see that gap grow to almost 500,000 people.

The largest districts in the country:

County Population
RI-AL 1,057,908
DE-AL 982,688
ID-01 907,565
ID-02 907,565
SD-AL 898,802

The smallest districts in the country:

County Population
WY-AL: 572,983
VT-AL 627,754
NE-01 650,200
NE-02 650,199
NE-03 650,199