Below are Fair Lines America’s updated 2019 estimates for reapportionment following the 2020 Census. The 2020 reapportionment will allocate congressional representation (and Electoral College votes) for the 50 states from 2022 through 2030.
By taking the July 1, 2019 estimates of the resident population of the United States from the Census Bureau and adding a weighted average growth rate Fair Lines America has produced a reasonable forecast for what the next reapportionment will look like in December of 2020.
The 2019 Forecast
We continue to project Texas will gain three seats; Florida will net two; and Arizona, Colorado, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon will each pick up one.
There are still no multi-district losers. The ten states forecast to lose a district are Alabama, California, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and West Virginia.
Post-2020 District Populations
The 2010 decennial census found a 426,000-person population gap between the largest and smallest districts. If estimates hold, the next round of reapportionment and redistricting would see that gap grow to more than 522,000 residents.
The largest districts in the country by population will be the At-Large seats in Rhode Island (1,060,144) and Delaware (979,999) followed by the two seats in Idaho (906,656 and 906,655) and West Virginia (891,273 and 891,272).
The smallest districts in the country will be Montana’s two districts (both at 537,769), the At-Large districts in Wyoming (577,798) and Vermont (624,006), and the three Nebraska districts (all at 647,170).